Raptors 2008 Outlook

Oh yeah, I still have my blog... Alright let me see if I can make this a little more regular.

Let's begin with some Raptors' prediction shall we? Here's some of my thoughts and predictions on the Raptors after watching the preseason.

• Bosh looks good, real good. It looks like he has turned up another level of intensity after the Olympics. He's also more vocal on leadership stuff and communicates more in playing defence.
• JO looks out of game shape. Particularly his offence -- post up, spinaway jumper, face-up jumper -- are quite "sub-prime" at his standard right now. Maybe I'm still stuck at the memories of "All-star JO" five years ago, or maybe it's pre-season, but this JO is not dominant or intimitative that I was looking for.
• Jamario Moon was horrible in pre-season, but I was expecting it. He really needs to figure out how to not shoot that open 20-footer somehow, or he'll really be nailed on the bench. Btw, good Joey tends to show up more often these days!
• Bargnani has shown flashes of improvement, but not enough. Call me a Bargnani hater. He did show a lot of aggressiveness on offence -- shorter one-dribble jumpers, block shots, some offensive boards and putbacks made me think that he was bewitched. But two bad habits are still consistent and I wonder if that would ever change. One, if his shot doesn't go in, it affects every other aspect of his game like defence and rebounding. Two, asking for the ball at perimeter instead of spending more time in the paint, particularly even if he is playing against a smaller player.
• One thing I like in the preseason that I saw, was having all JO, Bosh and Bargnani out there. I used to think that it would never work because Bargnani can't defend the 3 position. But then, he can't really defend the interior and spend too much time outside anyways. Why not have him like a tall pylon to deny shots at the wing, and have JO and Bosh to bail him out if he gets beat? I actually really want to see Raps play some 3-2 zone with Bosh-JO-Bargs at the back.
• Raptors are one Jose's ankle injury away from a losing season. I didn't know the backups are going to be this raw, but I guessed before preseason this is going to be a risky situation because Sam can't draw plays and Raps offence is always PG-initiated. What else would Sam get Ukic/Solomon run other than high pick-and-roll, with so precisely little NBA experience under their belt? In Europe, big men get away with murder on picks, so it's totally different. Sam, don't blame those two for not being "aggressive" when turning the corner at pick-and-roll; that's just asking too much out of them. Why not run plays for them that does not require PGs to get open shots for everyone? Simple stuff like having Bosh or O'Neil on the block/elbow to attract attention and then some screens on the weak or high side? That beats dribbling around like a headless-chicken for 20 seconds before Solomon hoists up a shot. Well, as Doug Smith always say, I guess that's "Sam being Sam".
• Ukic > Solomon, in my books. Solomon really looks like a poor man's Mike James. I wonder if Bryan Colengelo is regretting signing him. A score-first point guard with poor court vision. Even if he can score at a higher percentage with his jump shot, the best we'll get from him is a... Mike James. Earlier in pre-season it seems like the coaching staff prefers Solomon more than Ukic because he has more experience. But the way I see it, is that you can't teach an old dog new tricks. Ukic on the other hand, has good court sense, shows a willingness to learn the system and habits of his teammates. I like him. There are quite a few things he needs to change, such as his shot mechanics and semi-palming dribbling that is oh-so-close to travelling in the NBA. He also needs to learn to be quicker with his feet when dribbling, and also find a way to dribble less, and learn the unavoidable Raps high-screen-and-roll that Sam demands every point guard to do. But it looks like he'll get it done, maybe not all this season, but eventually for sure.
• Having O'Neils' presence doesn't mean Raps should trap every pick-and-roll, Sam. Watching how some teams split our anticipated trap time and time again was disgusting. Yeah, sometimes Raps don't rotate quickly enough, but pls don't artificially create situations where the team needs to scramble on rotations.

Overall, this looks like the same team as last year. A shorter bench, but Ford-ego-free and marginally better interior defence. Much of the same shortfalls would probably show up this year -- weak perimeter defence that leads to the majority of breakdowns, Bargnani being clueless at times, Jamario shooting too much, Sam can't draw plays on close games, and the team overall would still be soft. I say Raps would mildy improve the record to 43-39 -- yup, I'm not that optimistic this year with some growing talent and key acquisitions around the East. Then much would be blamed on injury by the end of season because Bosh and O'Neil are bound to be out significant amount of time, but perhaps that's not the real reason of failure.

Let's pray it's not Calderon that would be out 25 games, or I'll probably stop watching them out of frustration.