What's wrong with the Raptors?

So, the Raptors are bad, horrible, unwatchable. At the halfway mark, the season is practically over.

At the beginning of the season, I predicted a so-so season, with some points right on money (e.g. spotty perimeter defence, backup point guard play) and some not so much (e.g. the rise of Bargnani).

But recently, I start to think that there's something that doesn't really add up. The Raptors have had enough bright moments to be better than many-games-under-.500. To name a few:

1. Bargnani's play, since Christmas, has been rock solid and the improvements shown on defence and rebounding are unimaginable.
2. Good Joey shows up much more often these days.
3. Roko has also given them some really good games in terms of ball movement and picking up tempo.
4. JO also gave them enough on rebounding, block shots, take charges and some offence

Sure, there are just as many bad things you can count about them -- I myself have been grilling them on perimeter defence (especially Calderon before he got hurt) and rebounding enough that I am sure Cindy -- and maybe even Isaac -- is getting sick of it. But despite all that, they should've had a better record than it is right now.

So what's wrong with these guys? I think this is really a classic example that basketball is not just about individual statistics, talents and contributions. Some subtle things:

1. Their role players do not play the role of role players.

For the past few years, they have probably lost one too-many "glue-guy" basketball players: Garbo, Rasho, MoPete. Sure Moon gives you steals and blocks, (good) Joey gives you athleticism, Kapono gives you 3 pointers, Parker gives you consistency, Hump gives you rebounding and meat. But nobody here makes subtle "role" plays. No hussle plays, no energy off the bench, no grit, not even good cheer-leading down the stretch, no proper communication in defence, no subtle defensive plays, no retailiation when the opponent crosses the line, nobody speaks up at the locker room when something is wrong.

Compare this group with the Vansity era: Alvin Williams gets on the floor chasing loose balls with two banged-up knees, MoPete draws his famous charges/flops, JYD provides crazy energy at the bench, Charles Oakley setting proper picks, communicates on defence, sets Vince straight, and most importantly, he would probably put a lumber on Kevin Garnett if he swags his finger at a Raptor player. Good teams have role players that play for one another and with passion and intensity. Raptors role players this season seems to be more concerned with their own contributions (i.e. if I cover my man properly, make shots, play well, then I have done enough for my team), and their minutes, and whether they are starting or not. Seriously, when was the last time any of them was on the floor scrapping for loose ball?

2. Bryan Colengelo fired Sam too early.

As much as I hate Sam and applauded of the good riddance, BC pulled the trigger too early on this one. After the Denver game, Raptors had a players-only meeting to try to fix it up themselves; it showed that they care after a lifeless game. Bryan should have really waited out to see how the players responded in the next couple of games, rather than firing the coach the next day. The team seemed distracted by the incident rather than being more focused. I guess Bosh was a little ticked off -- not because Sam was fired, but how Bryan "sends a message" to them while interrupting the team to get better by themselves. This may even have a negative impact comes 2010 on Bosh's free agency.

Jay Triano has already done an admirable job as a lame-duck assistant coach in terms of quickly implementing a better defensive scheme, pushing the tempo, and more proper coaching decisions in close-games, but really, he must have got little respect out of the players, and has no means to set the players' mentality straight.

3. JO is a selfish player.

I don't mean ball-hog selfish, but himself-before-team selfish. Despite always saying the right things in front of media and anchors the defence well, I would expect some leadership from him in the locker room, to set the right tone, to provide the veteran savy after being 6-time NBA all-star. Yes, this is Bosh's team, but I can't help to think why he needs to score well before feeling comfortable in the game? It is also rather inexplicable that he gets to the locker room and not return multiple-times this season for in-game injuries. And an innocent knee swell that takes weeks to heal, while his team is tanking and trade rumors abound? C'mon. This is the year of redemption for him, but he really redeemed nothing but cementing himself as a me-first player.

4. They need to redefine their ball-movement based offence.

There are a lot of people pointing out that the Raptors need an upgrade on the wing, a player that can create off the dribble. And I completely agree with that. But until that is realized (if ever), they need a tweak.

Ball-movement offence relies on the attraction of defence, particularly from side-to-side to shift, generating open-jump shots or open driving lanes by spacing out the floor. Whether this is caused by initial dribble penetration or playing "inside-out", you are basically forcing your opponent to cover defensive space that is bigger than they can cover.

There are a couple of pre-requisites for this:

1. Ability to draw initial defence attraction.
2. Respectable abilities of the "triple-threat" (shoot, drive, pass) by ball recipients.

For example, the Phoenix Suns of a couple of years ago, the old Bryan Colengelo's team, have a dominant pick-and-roll in Steve Nash and Amare Stoudamire, and multi-functional players like Barbosa, Diaw and Raja Bell.

The common rant of needing-a-slasher covers point one, as teams have sagged on high pick-and-rolls (a.k.a. Sam's "horns up") on Jose, making him shy away from dribble penetration this year. Bosh-at-the-elbow does not generate much spacing or ball-movement neither, other than an open-shot at the point from double-teaming up top.

But point two has become a real nagging problem this year. Jamario Moon is soaking up 30 minutes a game and has proven to be unable/unwilling to dribble drive to the basket, nor make shots at a high percentage. Kapono is not comfortable at driving to the basket (a.k.a Doug Smith's perfectly-labeled "pump-fake and travel" move). Neither Ukic / Solomon shoots well enough in 3-point range, nor are they good enough offence initiators. Good defensive teams have properly picked their poison and having success defending this offense, allowing Moon to shoot open 3s, denying Kapono the initial shot (and he usually can't do anything else after that).

To get around this, they need more systematic, aggressive off-ball picks, pin-downs, curls, and movement off the ball. Jay has already called more often the Parker-fadeaway-off-the-curl play, which is good. But they need more plays of those nature, where Jamario or Joey can be a threat of backdoor bounce-pass or alley-oops as a secondary option on picks, and catch-and-shoot of Kapono after running a zillon picks across the baseline, with rebounders at the weak-side.

Sure it is easy for me to type, but with this roster, ball-movement based offence eventually gets an open Jamario at the three point line weak-side elbow after 3 passes.

Looking forward, I hope they really tank this year to get a high draft-pick; it's been a while they have an impact from the draft other than the recent Bargnani. So, Jamario and Solomon, please go shoot more 3s. =)